Another get-​​rich-​​quick scheme foiled

Thanks to Drew B for drawing my atten­tion to a fant­astic article about blogging in New York magazine. The gist of it is that while blogs can earn money for writers, it’s not very likely. There are a number of issues, but the key is the number of inbound links. A large site with a staff can produce more material than a small, part-​​time hobby site. Also, they have more readers in the first place. This means a lot of people will read and link to them from their own sites, increasing the large site’s Technorati and Google rankings. The system is thus self-​​perpetuating and the top 1–2 blogs in every category com­pletely dwarf their smaller com­pet­itors. To make things worse, even the larger sites pay peanuts to their writers. Maybe I shouldn’t have booked that holiday in the Maldives after all…

Blogs to Riches by Clive Thompson

“It’ll be more like the main­stream media, really,” [Elizabeth Spiers] adds. “Blogging is increas­ingly becoming a survival of the fittest—and that all boils down to who has the best content. The blogs that are going to stand out are the ones who break news and have cred­ib­ility.” Plus, it can’t hurt that Wall Street scut­tle­butt is one of the last truly huge unfilled niches in the Manhattan blo­go­sphere. “This is a business, and we’ll build business infra­struc­ture from the get-​​go.” The age of the blog moguls is here. For Pete Rojas, blogging paid off hand­somely. Last fall, AOL bought Weblogs, Inc., which includes his blog Engadget, for $25 million. “I didn’t intend to become a mil­lion­aire,” says Rojas, “but I wound up there anyway.”

Introduction to Web 2.0 and Business

The signs of Web 2.0 are clear. Look for some aspect of com­munity col­lab­or­a­tion, of user-​​generated content, of the ability to cus­tomise the content, of a desktop-​​like applic­a­tion exper­i­ence. But why exactly should we care? In the words of a BusinessWeek headline on June 5, 2006, why is that “Web 2.0 Has Corporate America Spinning”?

Users benefit in multiple ways. They are empowered, with an internet that they choose and have, in part, created. The content they read and write is about what interests them rather than what a pub­lisher thinks might interest them. They get cheaper access to applic­a­tions. They are able to par­ti­cipate in and create a social network with like-​​minded people that may not exist in their day-​​to-​​day lives.

Businesses can benefit in similar ways. Many Web 2.0 services have specific business purposes. Startup 37Signals sells online col­lab­or­a­tion services spe­cific­ally designed to allow geo­graph­ic­ally remote teams to manage projects and agendas. Business doc­u­ments and hand­books are recre­ated as Wiki’s (the inform­a­tion struc­ture program used by Wikipedia). BusinessWeek reports that “Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein uses a Socialtext wiki instead of e-​​mail to create meeting agendas and post training videos for new hires. Six months after launching it, traffic on the 2,000-page wiki, used by a quarter of the bank’s work­force, already has sur­passed that of the company’s intranet”.

Maintaining and devel­oping contacts can be achieved through services like LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com, a ‘grown-​​up’ version of MySpace). Businesses can also add to or replace some of their PR activity with cor­porate blogs. Erstwhile Microsoft blogger, the gracious and disin­genuous Robert Scoble has arguably done more to soften its image than any of their PR activity over the last few years (http://scobleizer.wordpress.com).

For pub­lishers, the Web 2.0 approach clearly makes for an attractive business model. Having created a platform like digg.com, ongoing costs are fairly minimal for a news site, with no reporters, no editors, and no pro­duc­tion people. They have to pay for the band­width and some pro­gram­mers to tinker with the platform to keep it working sat­is­fact­orily. Their revenue comes from targeted avdertising such as Google AdWords (more of which anon) and since we, the users, decide what appears on the front page, these advert­ise­ments will be very accur­ately targeted to what the digg com­munity is inter­ested in.

It is not sur­prising, then, that the promise of a suc­cessful Web 2.0 site has the business com­munity excited and that VC funding and angel invest­ment is coming back to the internet. News International’s acquis­i­tion of social net­working site MySpace for $580mn in July 2005 has been the largest deal so far, but it is one of hundreds of deals.In most cases, the amounts aren’t astounding. Luckily for investors, with the low-​​cost business models these startups have adopted and users driven as much by word-​​of-​​mouth as tra­di­tional advert­ising, there isn’t actually a need for vast amounts of capital in many cases. There’s cer­tainly no return to the frenzy of 2000 when, for example, pets.com, which sold pet food online, raised $82.5mn in an IPO before col­lapsing nine months later. But they are inter­esting nonetheless.

Communal video sharing site youtube attracted $5mn from Sequoia Capital in October 2005, while digg got $2.8mn. Online calendar service trumba attracted $8mn in November 2005 from three invest­ment com­panies. Zimbra, an online equi­valent to Microsoft Outlook, raised $16mn. Facebook, a college net­working site, raised $12.2mn. The list goes on, most amounts are undis­closed, but a glance at the port­folio pages of VC com­panies like Union Square Ventures, the Omidyar Network and Selby Venture Partners confirms that con­fid­ence is high.

Reality 2.0

An amusing tirade against some of the worst failings of some of these Web 2.0 startups. On a related note, I just spoke with Roger Greene, the CEO of Ipswitch, who make the ven­er­able and highly rated FTP client ws_​ftp. He told me he thought it was fairly clear that a lot of these com­panies are launched with the sole inten­tion of being bought up by one of the internet giants.

5 Ways To Make Me Laugh At Your Web 2.0 Company — Business Logs

In this fast-​​paced and syn­er­gistic world, buzzwords get the play. Non-​​technical people start com­panies and press ridicu­lous dead­lines to their engin­eers, Web 1.0 burnouts start new com­panies that are just rehashes of the idea they couldn’t make work in 1999, and the tech­no­logy you use is more important than the value you provide. Hell, VCs are getting sick of their clients making it big, so they’re starting half-​​assed “Web 2.0″ com­panies of their own which are off the map 1 month after beta.

Digg is (a) bull, says Evolving Trends

Marc Fawzi cri­ti­cises digg for creating crowd-​​as-​​bull beha­viour. When he pub­lished a story that reached digg’s front page, he got 33,000 hits to his site in the first 24 hours, becoming the number one site on WordPress for 16 hours. The digg crowd acted like a mob, but not a smart one. Marc’s admir­a­tion for “the wisdom of crowds” took a bit of a beating, under­stand­ably enough.

It’s a good post and great food for thought. In the book, James Surowiecki dis­tin­guishes between Information Cascades — where everyone follows everyone else — and properly wise crowds — where everyone thinks inde­pend­ently but the “correct answer” is the median of all their responses. I think digg is arguably sus­cept­ible to inform­a­tion cascades — for many users, the only stories they see are already on the front page and thus only news that has already been promoted gets promoted further. This can create some quite bizarre valu­ations for stories.

Evolving Trends — Digg’s Biggest Flaw!

This post explains and demon­strates a real flaw in digg’s service model that helps promote hype on the Web, causing a “dumbing down” effect on culture, with serious con­sequences to society. Having said that, the exper­i­mental evidence and logic supplied here apply equally to other Web 2.0 social book­marking services such as del.icio.us, reddit, and netscape beta.

Paul Graham on 2.0

Paul Graham, one of the most level-​​headed and insightful com­ment­ators on this subject, analyses O’Reilly’s essay (post below) and ends up agreeing that the “2.0″ label is unfor­tu­nate since what we’re describing is not so revolu­tionary after all. It’s more of a question of learning from the mistakes of the past and putting much more focus on users and usability.

Web 2.0:

Web 2.0 means using the web the way it’s meant to be used. The ‘trends’ we’re seeing now are simply the inherent nature of the web emerging from under the broken models that got imposed on it during the Bubble.

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