I got the ten-minute version of his work. For your convenience, here’s a two minute version, covering some of the figures that might be surprising or interesting to readers of this blog.

Q: How big is mobile?

A: Very big.

The population of the world is 6.8bn. There are 4.6bn mobile phone subscriptions. That’s 700,000 more than there are FM radios; three times as many as there are TV sets; four times as many as there are land line phones or PCs; five times the number of cars in the world.

In the Industrialised World, the penetration rate is 133%. In other words, a third of us have two mobile subscriptions.

In the Emerging World, representing 4/5 of the world’s population, the penetration rate is 56%. Not so high, but mobiles nonetheless account for more than double the number of radios; five times the number of televisions; six times the number of PCs. Ahonen states that mobile is the first media in the emerging world; it’s the “only medium able to reach half of the population”.

Q: What makes the most money?

A: Contracts and access, of course, and then voice calls.

Voice revenues – worth $615bn in 2009 and growing.

Messaging (SMS & MMS) is worth $153bn, and also growing. MMS – which I still consider quite niche and unused – was worth $29bn in 2009.

Q: And the mobile internet?

A: It’s growing fast, but even the largest parts of this area don’t do half of the business that ‘lowly’ MMS does.

Mobile data services are worth $98bn in total. The largest segments of this are video ($14bn), music and ringtones ($13.9bn) and video games ($11.6bn). These revenues are growing at 15–25% year-on-year.

The fastest-growing segments of the data market are mobile learning and search, each of which has grown over 200% in the last year. Mobile advertising and marketing is finally starting to happen, too, grossing $5.9bn last year, up 85% on 2008.

Mobile social networking is the fourth biggest earner overall in data, worth $10.3bn in 2009.

Q: Should I make an iPhone app for my publication/brand?

A: If you are looking for reach, no: you should make a Nokia app. Even better, Java or (best) an SMS or WAP-based service.

Overall, Nokia has 38% of mobile device market share. Samsung has 20% and LG 10%. The fourth and fifth place are taken by SonyEricsson and Motorola.

If you restrict the sample to smartphones, Nokia is again way out front with 39% market share. Then it’s RIM (Blackberry) with 21%. Apple has 15% and HTC (Android) just 5%.

Smartphones represent only 13% of the mobile device market. On the other hand, 95% of phones can do WAP and every phone can now do SMS. Over 90% of phones are capable of 2.5G or faster transmission speeds now, so this isn’t the WAP you remember from the nineties. 53% of the phones in use world-wide can do Java apps.

Picture credit: RoamMobility

PS: Tomi has given me permission to pass on the full data he sent me via email, so leave a comment if you’d like this.

A presentation I wrote for a meeting today about where our media are heading in the next 5–10 years. It doesn’t make a lot of sense without my accompanying narrative, I realise. Nonetheless, I wanted to keep it safely bookmarked and you might enjoy a round of Powerpoint-Karaoke against it.

Also, no image sources are acknowledged *slaps own hands* – sorry, Internet people: it woz Google Image Search wot made me do it. Happy to add.